From The Kernel:
In his new book, The Perfect Bet: How Science and Math Are Taking the Luck Out of Gambling, Adam Kucharski details how trying to understand dice games led one mathematician to develop probability theory, how one of the first wearable computers was designed to covertly predict the fall of a roulette ball, and how poker-playing bots are advancing more quickly than we think. As he
Sunday, 12 June 2016
How to Get a Job In Venture Capital
In a 2014 post* I introduced the writer thusly:
And now Mr. Turck (*"Partner at FirstMark Capital. Previously, Managing Director at
Bloomberg Ventures and before that, co-founder of TripleHop
Technologies, acquired by Oracle....")
In this first paragraph of a post from last September I don't think he was talking specifically about Marc Andreessen but...
Playing “fake VC” (or the portfolio
And now Mr. Turck (*"Partner at FirstMark Capital. Previously, Managing Director at
Bloomberg Ventures and before that, co-founder of TripleHop
Technologies, acquired by Oracle....")
In this first paragraph of a post from last September I don't think he was talking specifically about Marc Andreessen but...
Playing “fake VC” (or the portfolio
Bonhams Auctioneers Has Allegedly Installed Sprinklers To Douse Homeless Outside the Building
It seems they got the idea from the Archdiocese of San Francisco.
Now, the auctioneers may think they are offering the homeless a cool, refreshing shower but boy the optics are bad.
From Curbed San Francisco:
SF Luxury Auction House Allegedly Turns Sprinklers on Homeless [Update]
Dousing the homeless with water as a preventative measure is nothing new in San Francisco
Potrero Hill's Bonhams
Now, the auctioneers may think they are offering the homeless a cool, refreshing shower but boy the optics are bad.
From Curbed San Francisco:
SF Luxury Auction House Allegedly Turns Sprinklers on Homeless [Update]
Dousing the homeless with water as a preventative measure is nothing new in San Francisco
Potrero Hill's Bonhams
Saturday, 11 June 2016
Noah Smith: "Economics Struggles to Cope With Reality"
From BloombergView:
There are basically four different activities that all go by the name
of macroeconomics. But they actually have relatively little to do with
each other. Understanding the differences between them is helpful for
understanding why debates about the business cycle tend to be so
confused.
The first is what I call “coffee-house macro,” and it’s
what you hear in a lot of
There are basically four different activities that all go by the name
of macroeconomics. But they actually have relatively little to do with
each other. Understanding the differences between them is helpful for
understanding why debates about the business cycle tend to be so
confused.
The first is what I call “coffee-house macro,” and it’s
what you hear in a lot of
Questions America Wants Answered: "Is the Jetpack Movement Finally Taking Off?"
From the Wall Street Journal, June 7:
..."Even Google couldn’t make it work. 'The jetpack is a death trap because
the engines go off and you’re dead,' says Astro Teller, the head of X,
the so-called moonshot factory of Google parent Alphabet Inc.
His team dropped the jetpack in favor of a gyrocopter—essentially a
backpack helicopter that descends slowly thanks to a rotor that turns
..."Even Google couldn’t make it work. 'The jetpack is a death trap because
the engines go off and you’re dead,' says Astro Teller, the head of X,
the so-called moonshot factory of Google parent Alphabet Inc.
His team dropped the jetpack in favor of a gyrocopter—essentially a
backpack helicopter that descends slowly thanks to a rotor that turns
What’s the point of virtual reality?
If the psychologists are correct that the mind eventually accepts as real what is actually just virtual or imagined,* one natural endpoint is to use the technology to indoctrinate children to look up to me. In more ways than just physically.
And there will be no more back talk, short ones.
From techcrunch, May 26:
VR needs content if it’s to be more than a flash in the early adopter pan. But
And there will be no more back talk, short ones.
From techcrunch, May 26:
VR needs content if it’s to be more than a flash in the early adopter pan. But
On the productivity puzzle: Does business investment explain it all?
Following up on last week's "Productivity Growth: It's the Investment, Stupid".
James Pethokoukis at AEI's Ideas blog, June 10:
This, I would venture, is a pretty illuminating econ chart. It comes from the White House econ team.
Productivity growth has been glacial since the end of the Great
Recession. And a collapse in “capital intensity” plays the biggest role.
From the CEA’s Jason
James Pethokoukis at AEI's Ideas blog, June 10:
This, I would venture, is a pretty illuminating econ chart. It comes from the White House econ team.
Productivity growth has been glacial since the end of the Great
Recession. And a collapse in “capital intensity” plays the biggest role.
From the CEA’s Jason
Google is Working on a Kill Switch to Prevent an Artificial Intelligence Uprising
From engadget:
But it isn't ready to be implemented across the board just yet.
Humans don't like the idea of not being at
the top of the food chain; having something we've created taking power
over us isn't exactly ideal. It's why folks like Tesla mastermind Elon Musk and noted astrophysicist Stephen Hawking are so determined to warn us
But it isn't ready to be implemented across the board just yet.
Humans don't like the idea of not being at
the top of the food chain; having something we've created taking power
over us isn't exactly ideal. It's why folks like Tesla mastermind Elon Musk and noted astrophysicist Stephen Hawking are so determined to warn us
How to Reconcile Peak Profit Margins And The Race To The Bottom
One of the conundrums of the current landscape is the fact that overall profit margins, although coming off the record levels of a couple years ago, are historically elevated at the same time vast swaths of the economy have to run faster just to stay in place.
This piece and the embedded links give some clues as to what's going on.
From FT Alphaville:
Do digital industries break capitalism?
A
This piece and the embedded links give some clues as to what's going on.
From FT Alphaville:
Do digital industries break capitalism?
A
Friday, 10 June 2016
"Crude Slumps As Active Oil Rigs Rise For Second Week In A Row"
We don't put a lot of stock in the Friday moves when the rig count comes out but in this case we may be seeing a reversal of the long established downtrend. The number of active rigs is really low.
From Barron's Focus on Funds:
So much for $50 a barrel.
Crude took a leg lower in early afternoon trading after a weekly
reading on the number of active U.S. oil rigs increased. Oilfield
services
From Barron's Focus on Funds:
So much for $50 a barrel.
Crude took a leg lower in early afternoon trading after a weekly
reading on the number of active U.S. oil rigs increased. Oilfield
services
Natural Gas: EIA Weekly Supply/Demand Report
From the Energy Information Administration:
In the News:
Near-month futures contract indicates expectations of rising prices
Heading into the summer cooling season, the New York Mercantile
Exchange (Nymex) natural gas contract for July has markedly exceeded
Henry Hub spot prices, likely reflecting expectations for summer natural
gas consumption to increase substantially from current levels.
In the News:
Near-month futures contract indicates expectations of rising prices
Heading into the summer cooling season, the New York Mercantile
Exchange (Nymex) natural gas contract for July has markedly exceeded
Henry Hub spot prices, likely reflecting expectations for summer natural
gas consumption to increase substantially from current levels.
USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report (WASDE), June 10, 2016
Wheat down 8.25 cents at $5.02; corn up 2.5 cents at $4.29.
FinViz
From the U.S. Department of Agriculture:
WHEAT:
Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2016/17 are raised this
month on both increased
beginning stocks and
larger winter wheat production. Beginning stocks
are raised slightly
with a 3-million-bushel decrease in 2015/16 imports partially
offsetting a 5-million-bushel
FinViz
From the U.S. Department of Agriculture:
WHEAT:
Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2016/17 are raised this
month on both increased
beginning stocks and
larger winter wheat production. Beginning stocks
are raised slightly
with a 3-million-bushel decrease in 2015/16 imports partially
offsetting a 5-million-bushel
"European Banks Are Crashing"
From ZeroHedge:
From Deutsche Bank to Credit Suisse and from Barclays to Banco
Popolare, the European banking system is getting battered this week with today's plunge the biggest in 4 months...
This is the worst two week drop in European banks since April 2012...
As Deutsche falls back to record lows...
And it's not about top get any better as Europe's yield curve collapses...MORE
From Deutsche Bank to Credit Suisse and from Barclays to Banco
Popolare, the European banking system is getting battered this week with today's plunge the biggest in 4 months...
This is the worst two week drop in European banks since April 2012...
As Deutsche falls back to record lows...
And it's not about top get any better as Europe's yield curve collapses...MORE
Société Générale's Albert Edwards Has Some Troubling News He Reluctantly Shares
..."We remain at the bearish extreme of the market," he wrote.
"It is not a pleasant place. It is cold, dark, and damp. People
either don'’t speak to you or send you abusive emails. Members of
your own family pretend not to know you. Actually, I made that
last bit up."...
From Business Insider:
ALBERT EDWARDS: 'CONDITION RED ALERT' — a recession is imminent
Albert Edwards
"Angry banks complicate BOJ’s ability to deepen negative rates"
Following up on yesterday's "Deutsche Bank On the European Central Bank: We Are Governed By Idiots".
From Reuters via Asia Times:
The Bank of Japan may have run into an unexpected obstacle as it
considers expanding its extraordinary stimulus programme as soon as next
week — the wrath of the country’s powerful but typically compliant
banks over pushing interest rates deeper into negative
From Reuters via Asia Times:
The Bank of Japan may have run into an unexpected obstacle as it
considers expanding its extraordinary stimulus programme as soon as next
week — the wrath of the country’s powerful but typically compliant
banks over pushing interest rates deeper into negative
Good Deflation Is Good
Except, maybe, for debtors who have to run faster to stay in place on their payments.
From Ed Yardeni's Dr. Ed blog:
Why are the major central banks so paranoid about deflation? It’s
probably because they are staffed (stuffed) with macroeconomists who
associate deflation with depression. In their opinion, falling prices
make it harder for debtors to service their debts. Widespread defaults
From Ed Yardeni's Dr. Ed blog:
Why are the major central banks so paranoid about deflation? It’s
probably because they are staffed (stuffed) with macroeconomists who
associate deflation with depression. In their opinion, falling prices
make it harder for debtors to service their debts. Widespread defaults
Bayer Wants to Use Super-Powered Satellites to Improve Farming
From Modern Farmer:
Not an actual photo of a Bayer satellite. This is a stock satellite.
There's a growing movement to
harness more modern technology in agriculture, whether it's learning
from data science or implementing autonomous robots into the fields—both
of which we saw at the recent AgBot Challenge. Unsurprisingly, the industry's mega-corporations want a piece of the action.
Not an actual photo of a Bayer satellite. This is a stock satellite.
There's a growing movement to
harness more modern technology in agriculture, whether it's learning
from data science or implementing autonomous robots into the fields—both
of which we saw at the recent AgBot Challenge. Unsurprisingly, the industry's mega-corporations want a piece of the action.
Bank of Russia Cuts Rate First Time Since July as Risks Fade
Considering what she has had to work with, sanctions, oil prices etc., the central bank's performance has been as good as one could hope for.
From Bloomberg:
Economists were divided after rate pause lasted almost a year
Inflation surprised by remaining unchanged for three months
Russia’s central bank reduced borrowing costs for the first time in
almost a year as its focus shifts away
From Bloomberg:
Economists were divided after rate pause lasted almost a year
Inflation surprised by remaining unchanged for three months
Russia’s central bank reduced borrowing costs for the first time in
almost a year as its focus shifts away
Thursday, 9 June 2016
A fully priced-in rate cut is on cards in Russia
From Saxo's Trading Floor blog, June 9:
Higher oil and lower inflation allow room for cut
The need to keep rates high to attract capital not so pressing any more
Overseas analysts expect a 0.5% rate increase on June 10
Domestic analysts expect central bank to hold its fire
After almost a year of
keeping the Russian key rates at 11% it seems to be the time for a cut
and the central bank
Higher oil and lower inflation allow room for cut
The need to keep rates high to attract capital not so pressing any more
Overseas analysts expect a 0.5% rate increase on June 10
Domestic analysts expect central bank to hold its fire
After almost a year of
keeping the Russian key rates at 11% it seems to be the time for a cut
and the central bank
Sharpen that pencil! Essay winner will become owner of Vermont newspaper
Intersting exit strategy.
From the Boston Globe:
When Ross Connelly “croaks,” he doesn’t want it to be in front of a
computer screen while he’s trying to make the deadline for next week’s
newspaper.
So the 70-year-old is offering to pass the torch and give away The Hardwick Gazette,
a weekly newspaper nestled in the Northeast Kingdom in Vermont that
he’s owned for 30 years, to the person
From the Boston Globe:
When Ross Connelly “croaks,” he doesn’t want it to be in front of a
computer screen while he’s trying to make the deadline for next week’s
newspaper.
So the 70-year-old is offering to pass the torch and give away The Hardwick Gazette,
a weekly newspaper nestled in the Northeast Kingdom in Vermont that
he’s owned for 30 years, to the person
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