"European Financial Networks: Prepare for Bloodletting to Commence"

From True Economics:

A recent paper, titled "Transmission Channels of Systemic Risk and Contagion in the European Financial Network"
co-authored by Nikos Paltalidis, Dimitrios Gounopoulos, Renatas Kizys,
Yiannis Koutelidakis (Journal of Banking and Finance, gated) tackles a
very interesting problem relating to the systemic stability of the
European banking system and the bi-directional

America Is Losing At Skyscrapers

From New York Magazine:






The Shanghai Tower (center) is the world's second-tallest building. The one on the right can also open beer bottles.





Photo:

Gensler




If you think those 1,200-foot beanpoles
going up in midtown are impressive, you should see what's sprouting in
Shanghai. According to

Home On (or off) The Road: The World's Burliest Camper Van

From Curbed:



Want a camper van that can climb up a double-black diamond, 45-degree slope and look cool doing it? Behold the KiraVan,
a tractor-trailer combo that could be the world's toughest expedition
vehicle. The yet-to-be-priced KiraVan tractor features a burly Mercedes
Unimog U500NA with a six-cylinder high efficiency turbo-diesel engine
and a four-door crew cabin. It has enough

"Report: UK, U.S., Russian troops in Libya"

Got a little (four years and counting) regime change going on here.
For those playing at home, some of the early betting favorites for 2016 are Moldova, Burundi, Tajikistan, Macedonia and Burkina Faso.

From al-Arabiya:

Saturday, 23 January 2016





Dozens of British, Russia and American troops have arrived in Libya
in support for the weak internationally-recognized government in

"Vermeer as Scientist"

From the Times Literary Supplement:




 View of Delft

It is a truism of responses to the Dutch painter Johannes Vermeer’s life and
works that what very little we know about the life stands in inverse
relationship to how intimately we relate to the work. This is only one of
many contrasts that shape our perception of the artist. His younger
compatriot Rembrandt van Rijn (1606–69) may have

Science/Not Science: Crusading Against Multiple Regression Analysis

 "A huge range of science projects are done with multiple regression analysis. The results are often somewhere between meaningless and quite damaging. ... "


From Edge:

I hope that in the future, if I’m successful in communicating
with people about this, that there’ll be a kind of upfront warning in
New York Times articles: These data are based on multiple regression
analysis. This would

Iran Leader Says Never Trusted West, Likes China Better. Also Downgrades U.S. From ‘Great Satan’ to ‘Great False Idol’

From Reuters via the Asia Times:

Iran’s supreme leader says he never trusted the West, seeks closer ties with China 

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday called for
closer economic and security ties with China, saying Iran had never
trusted the West, as the two countries agreed to increase bilateral
trade more than 10-fold to $600 billion in the next decade.




Iran’s

3D Printing Comes Into Its Own: Fashion!

I know it's not advanced metalworking but it is still damn interesting technology.
From 3ders.org:

Berlin Fashion Week debuts Michael Michalsky's 3D printed lifelike mini mannequins

3D printing technologies are making a big splash at this years
Mercedes-Benz Fashion Week Berlin, though not on the catwalk as you
might expect. That is to say, reputable German fashion designer Michael

Trapped In the Snow With That Brother-In-Law Who Won't Stop Talking? Consider the Cannibal Lifestyle

Apparently there is some upside beyond even the blissful tranquility of silence.
From our 2010 post "Bite Me: An evolutionary case for cannibalism":

While
strolling last month through one of the dimly lit backrooms in a wing
of the National Galleries of Scotland, my inner eye still tingling with
thousands of Impressionistic afterimages, pudgy Rubensian cherubs, and
gothic quadrangles,

Felix Zulauf: «From Buy the Dips to Sell the Rally»

Mr. Zulauf is one of the more accurate members of the Barron's Roundtable gang, happening this month and which we'll link to after they wrap up next week. For now here he is at Switzerland's Finanz und Wirtschaft, Jan. 22:

According to
macro strategist Felix Zulauf, founder and president of Zulauf Asset
Management and Vicenda Asset Management in Zug, the almost
seven-year-old bull market is

Going Off-Line As Privilege Signaling

Sometimes you have to do a little signaling.




What better way to show you’re too cool to be ‘on’ all the time; that you need space to think great thoughts? 



That, and when you have the machines on, sure as hell somebody's going to try to contact you.
From the Guardian:

How living offline became the new status symbol 

It was a death as intensely private as the mourning was public. David 

Soros: ‘The EU Is on the Verge of Collapse’—An Interview (plus George's stock tips for the current market)

It's always interesting to hear what Mr. Soros has to say.


"Ils ne se servent de la pensée que pour autoriser leurs injustices, et
emploient les paroles que pour déguiser leurs pensées"

—François-Marie Arouet--'Voltaire', Dialogue xiv. Le Chapon et la Poularde (1766).


"Men use thought
only to justify their wrong doings, and employ speech only to conceal
their thoughts"
From the Feb. 11

Kremlin Denies Claims Russia Asked Assad To Step Down Last Year

Ahead of the (apparently delayed) Syrian peace talks the Financial Times' story was a bit of a bombshell this morning.
First up, from The Interpreter:

Live Updates: The Kremlin has denied claims published by the
Financial Times that the late GRU chief, Igor Sergun, had travelled to
Syria to ask, without success, that Bashar al-Assad step aside.

The previous post in our Putin in Syria column

Solar: The Quality Remains Long After The Price Is Forgotten

That's one version of a quote by Henry Royce, he of the Rolls-Royce motorcar.
First Solar is the Roller of solar, period.
Don't get me started on SunEdison.

From Investors Business Daily: 

First Solar, SunPower Gleam On Barclays Report

SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY) and Sunrun (NASDAQ:RUN) are prepped for a bare-knuckle slugfest over 2016 installations, but the skies are clear for First Solar (

Handy Hints For Our Soon-to-be-Snowbound East Coast Friends

At least once a year the Eastern seaboard sees a big storm and we try to be helpful.
From the Art of Manliness:

5 Ways to Tie a Scarf: Your 60-Second Visual Guide




Scarves are a great way to stay toasty warm when the winter winds
come biting. But many men don’t know how to tie a scarf in a masculine
and confident way. Using Antonio Centeno’s article from a few years ago, we illustrated 5 of

Natural Gas: EIA Weekly Supply/Demand Report

Right now supply is swamping demand despite natural gas almost topping coal as the power burn fuel of choice.
Front futures $2.139 up 0.001.

From the Energy Information Administration:



In the News:




Consumption of natural gas for power generation at record highs


Since January 1, consumption of natural gas for electric power
generation (power burn) has averaged 26.0

More On China's Cryptocurrency Push and Financial Repression

Following up on yesterday's "You Call That Financial Repression? I'll Show You Financial Repression: Chinese Central Bank Explores Cryptocurrency".

First up, state mouthpiece Xinhua:

China to issue digital currency "as soon as possible"

China's central bank on Wednesday announced that it will try to issue digital currency "as soon as possible."

A team in the central bank is examining

Short The Swiss (and Luxembourg)

Maybe Liechtenstein too. Never much cared for Doha either. And then there's...
errrmmm, excuse me.
From FT Alphaville:

Capital flow reversals and the Swiss

There’s a been recurring phenomenon at the World Economic Forum in
Davos this week. If the global elite have finally found their way to a
particular narrative or viewpoint — this year’s core fascinations being
tech disruption, Europe’s

The Wealthy Have Nowhere To Put Their Money, This Is A Problem

From The Week:

Rich people have nowhere to put their money. This is a serious problem.


So here's a mystery: According to the latest numbers
from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the world economy grew 3.1
percent in 2015 and is projected to grow 3.4 percent in 2016. On the
world stage, that's a pretty modest rate, but it is growth. And yet at
the same time, financial markets started

Markets Bounding and Rebounding

From Marc to Market:

Collective Sigh of Relief Ahead of the Weekend




Like a car ignition that finally catches after several attempts, the
global markets are building on the recovery seen in North America
yesterday.  



Asian stocks rallied, with the Nikkei leading the
way with a 5.9% rally.  More modest 1.25% gains in Shanghai Composite
allowed Chinese stocks to finish the week with small

Half of Future Oil Output Uneconomic at $60/Barrel--Wood Mackenzie

From WoodMac:

Half of oil production from future developments is uneconomic at
US$60/bbl Brent – this is the conclusion from our comprehensive
breakeven analysis of future global oil developments. These comprise of
conventional projects which have yet to receive final investment
decision (pre-FID) and future drilling in US onshore Lower 48 plays;
which are critical for future oil supply.

Blockchain: "Blythe Masters' Firm Raises Cash, Wins Australian Contract"

Following up on Tuesday's "Blythe Masters' Blockchain Co. Hires In London, Still No Word On Financing". Now we have an answer.
From Bloomberg:

Digital Asset Holdings, the blockchain startup run by former JPMorgan
Chase & Co. banker Blythe Masters, raised $52 million from
investors and won a contract to radically speed up settlement in
Australia’s stock market.

The deal with ASX Ltd.,

You Call That Financial Repression? I'll Show You Financial Repression: Chinese Central Bank Explores Cryptocurrency

From Bloomberg: 

China Mulls Answer to Bitcoin With Digital Currency Study

China’s central bank said it is studying the prospects of issuing its
own digital currency and aiming to roll out a product as soon as
possible, contending that alternative payment systems can improve the
efficiency of global transactions.

The People’s Bank of China set
up a research team in 2014 to study digital

Silicon Valley's $585 Billion Problem

Is the emphasis on the Sili... or on the ...con?

A major piece from Fortune:

VCs have pumped up the value of the “unicorn” startups. Now tech IPOs are in trouble. Good luck getting out.

Of all the Silicon Valley IPOs in the past couple of years, Lending Club’s might have been the surest bet of all.
.
The San Francisco peer-to-peer lender is a star in the world of “fintech,” a growing sector

Davos, The Fourth Industrial Revolution and Robot Journalism

I'm pretty sure half the reports being filed from Davos, what with their regurgitated "Fourth Industrial Revolution" pablum, are written by robots.

Here's someone not in Switzerland, R&D Magazine:

Much attention at the 2016 World Economic Forum has been focused on the Fourth Industrial Revolution. With the proliferation of advanced robotics, autonomous transport, artificial intelligence,

"Natural-gas prices turn lower as U.S. supplies decline less than expected"

Front futures 2.084 -0.034.
From MarketWatch:
Natural-gas futures turned lower on Thursday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that supplies of the commodity declined by 178 billion cubic feet for the week ended Jan. 15. That was less than the fall of between 183 billion cubic feet and 187 billion cubic feet expected by analysts polled by Platts. Total stocks now stand at

"Natural Gas Rises on Expectations for Big Draw from Stockpiles"--UPDATE

Update below.
Original post:

Well (so to speak) it's been six days since "Natural Gas: EIA Weekly Supply/Demand Report (and a long trade for the nimble)" at $2.108 and now, fifteen minutes ahead of the EIA's storage report we're sitting at $2.172 +0.054.; $640 to the good on each $2250 margin, or 28% cash on cash profit.
No pressure.
We've counted the heating degree days and taken the pulse of

Barclays Oil ETN Is Trading at A 40% Premium To Its Benchmark (OIL)

Or, as the writer puts it, "completely unhinged".
From Barron's Focus on Funds:

Barclays Oil ETN is Completely Disconnected from Commodity’s Price

Another oddity has developed in the market for exchange-traded notes.
.
Barclays warned investors this week that the market price of a popular oil-tracking ETN has jumped to a massive premium over the value of the index it’s designed to track. While

Ruble Continues Collapse, Analysts Weigh In

Following up on yesterday's "Russia: Bank of America Has A Scenario With The Ruble At 210 to the Dollar".

In December 2014 there was almost a frenzy among the commentariat regarding the fall of the ruble toward the 60's. This time around there seemed to be an air of resignation despite the move being inexorable since last May at under 50. Go figure.

Here Alphavillein David Keohane rounds up a

Watching Hong Kong And The Derivatives Trigger Of Doom (HSCEI)

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is trading up 90.63 at 8,106.07.

Although we are not big fans of technical analyst Tom DeMark he said something today on Bloomberg that triggered some awareness sensitivity on our part. As quoted at ZeroHedge:





We are pretty confident the next level on the HSCEI is below 7,500.
We think what we're going to see in the HSCEI is

Russia: Bank of America Has A Scenario With The Ruble At 210 to the Dollar

USD/RUB: 81.4709 last. EUR/RUB 88.9471 as of 21:03 ET.
From Fort Russ: 

Bank of America Calculates $210[sic] Ruble Scenario 


If
oil prices fall to $25 per barrel, the budget could be reduced without a
deficit if the dollar is equal to 210 rubles, estimates economists of
Bank of America.




If
oil prices fall to $25 per barrel, for a balanced fulfillment of the
Russian budget for 2016,

Sometimes You Need A Helping Hand

From gCaptain:


The luxury cruise ship Le Boreal was loaded onto the deck of the COSCO Heavy Transport ship HLV Kang Sheng Kou in Punta Arenas, Chile this week about two months after the ship was hit by a major fire in the Southern Atlantic Ocean...MORE
Those heavy lift ships are some of the most amazing things in the world. Here's the biggest, the MV Blue Marlin moving some barges. Via the

"Turkish army establishing military base in Somalia"

Of course they are.
From PressTV:

Ankara has started to build a military base in Somalia to train soldiers from African countries to fight against al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Shabab militants, a report says. 

In a Monday report, Turkish newspaper Daily Sabah cited military sources as saying that based on an agreement between the Turkish and Somali governments, over 1,500 Somali troops will be

Having Avoided a Dow Theory Sell Signal....I'm Getting Too Old for This

From iBankCoin:

Cashin: We Dodged a Bullet

Rumors of derivatives in Hong Kong. Today’s reversal from -566, allowed us to avoid the ominous “Dow Theory sell signal.”.Watch what happens in Asia tonight..Oil’s rebound is what drove today’s rally..Had we broke 1,801 on the SPY, there would’ve been dragons in these lands....MORE

Naming Names: Cash Flow Negative Energy Companies With Big Debt (XLE; XOP)

The proxies we use for 'the industry' are the S&P Energy Sector ETF (XLE) for the integrateds and the SPDR Exploration and Production ETF (XOP) for the smaller guys.

Both set new multi-year lows again today, XOP currently down 5.78% at $22.49 and the XLE at $50.23, down $2.95 (5.55%)

From ZeroHedge:


America's Cash Flow Negative Energy Companies Have $325 Billion In Debt Among Them



With

"ISIS Terrorists Get a Big Pay Cut"---UPDATED

Update below.
Original post:

From the Fiscal Times:

It can’t be easy being a fighter for the terror group ISIS these days, what with some of the world’ most powerful militaries raining bombs and missiles down on you on a daily basis. But until recently, one thing ISIS-allied jihadists could count on was being better paid than the wretched civilians trapped in their so-called caliphate across

Where In the World Is Izabella Kaminska: Conservation of Energy Edition

She's in Switzerland!

And as Switzerland's CERN teaches us, when matter and anti-matter collide the result, due to conservation of mass energy, will be the annihilation of both but with an asymmetry favoring residual matter in the resulting hadron cascade.
Anyhoo, here's one of Ms Kaminska's tweets which you can blame for my ramble:


My new motto. For every good technology affords us, an equal

Here Comes Your 19th Market Meltdown: Gold Miners

Following up on yesterday's "Gold Tout Touts Gold: 'Ripe for ‘Mega Short Squeeze’'".
After setting a new multi-year low yesterday, $12.40, and closing down 61 cents at $12.47, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is showing up 31 cents (2.49%) in premarket action.
The junior miner ETF (GDXJ) also set a multi-year low at $17.06 and is in full-blown collapse mode:



FinViz
Feb. futures $

Business Reporters In Asia May Be Starting To Lose It

Down, down, down.
Two from Bloomberg's Haidi Lun:


Another day, another bear for Tokyo. Nikkei -20% from June high. Again. On the upside, I'm getting better at bears. pic.twitter.com/LMGC3nX8qZ
— Haidi Lun 伦海迪 (@HaidiLun) January 20, 2016



*CHINA DEC. TRADING IMPROVEMENT NOT DUE TO FAKE INVOICING: COMMERCE MINISTRY
— Haidi Lun 伦海迪 (@HaidiLun) January 20, 2016

The Shanghai composite actually

"Markets Resume New Year Slide"

Brown Bros. Harriman & Cos. Marc Chandler:


The market meltdown is extending into the third consecutive week. 
Once again, the attempt to stabilize has failed, and bottom pickers have been punished.  





It is easy to line up poor news developments, including IMF cutting world
growth on the same day that the IEA warns of an extended glut in the oil
market, the world's largest mining company

GM Buys Shuttered Uber Competitor, Sidecar

From ars technica:

GM buys Uber rival Sidecar, which shut down in December
Deal comes shortly after $500M investment into Lyft, Uber's last-standing rival.

General Motors has acquired the technology and most of the employees behind the now-defunct ride-hailing startup Sidecar, according to Bloomberg. Sidecar Co-founder and CEO Sunil Paul will apparently not be joining the company, but no

House For Sale Between Florence and Siena: Eight Bedrooms, Views, Previous Owner, Michelangelo

From Handsome Properties Intl.:




HT: Metafilter who write:

Art lovers take note: a sprawling villa once owned by the artist and sculptor Michelangelo Buonarroti is on the market.
And if you have a few million to spare, the masterpiece could be yours.
The eight-bedroom villa, located near Siena, was bought by the
Renaissance master in 1549 and remained in the Buonarroti family until
1867

Why Are Corporate CEOs More Famous In India?

I know that's not the intended takeaway but it's the first thing I saw.
From Quartz:

More than half of people can’t name a single CEO

Pop quiz: Name the first CEO that comes to mind.

If you answered “umm…” or “what’s a CEO?,” don’t fret—you are far from alone. In fact, a new survey
of the general public in 10 large countries found that almost 50% of
people polled say they couldn’t name a

Gold Tout Touts Gold: "Ripe for ‘Mega Short Squeeze’"

The fact that most stands out about gold over the past two months of market turmoil, what with China and oil and equities and ISIS and, well everything, is that it is up less than forty bucks from the multi year low of November-December which was $1049.40 spot:




Kitco
$1087.50 last.
Spot, not futures, spot.
From Barron's Focus on Funds:

Gold Prices Ripe for ‘Mega Short Squeeze,’ Fund Manager

So These Eight ISIS Wives Walk Into Raqqa HQ and Lift Their Burkas...

Gotta be the feel good story of the week.
On so many levels.
From The Sun:

Burka-clad SAS soldiers take out ISIS kingpin in daring Syria mission
They hid assault weapons, grenades and ammunition under their clothes

A CRACK team of commandos disguised themselves by wearing burkas for a daring attack on an Islamic State base. 

The SAS squad wore the female Islamic clothing to pose as the wives

#2 Natural Gas Producer Chesapeake Energy Down 15% on Talk of Death, Dismemberment (CHK)

From FinViz:



To quote an analyst I once knew: "A trend appears to be emerging".

There's no news at the moment but if I had to guess I'd say the debt swap they need to complete to avoid bankruptcy may have hit a snag.

More to come, I'm sure. In the meantime that's at least a 14-15-year low.
$3.02 down 54 cents last.

Goldman Calls For Oil Rally, Makes Rookie Mistake

But Goldman doesn't make mistakes.
So why do they violate the first rule of public pronouncements, namely if you give a price, don't never ever give a date.
(I violate the rule on a regular basis but that's a different story)

From Barron's Getting Technical column:

Goldman Expects Oil Rally; Sees Prices Popping Soon

Sentiment is at negative extremes, the bank’s derivative strategists say, a

Italy Appears To Be Getting Sick of Germany, Brussels Despite Junker Love

Damn near a Bloomberg headline!

I was told this morning that the €3 billion that Turkey talked the Germans into committing the EU to had not been wired.
Wha?

First up, The Independent, Sunday Jan. 17:

Italy 'preparing to cause trouble' for EU as relations with Germany sour 

Rome says it will no longer be intimidated by 'soundbites' from Berlin...MORE
Hmmm, let's dig a little deeper.

ANSA on