Izabella Kaminska and the Tech Rentiers

With a title like that I feel I should commission a graphic novel.
From Dizzynomics:

Tech rentiers

I was going to start this post by saying I almost never disagree with anything Bloomberg’s Matt Levine writes. But then I realised that would be wrong. I never disagree with him.

Until today that is.

(Although, to be fair, the disagreement is more of a supplementary pedantic comment than a

"Debate: Does Longevity Put a Strain on the Economy?" (GE)

From GE Reports:

Nov 24, 2015 by Daniel Callahan, Co-Founder and President Emeritus of the Hastings Center

The question that’s often overlooked in the debate over longevity is not whether we can — but whether we should — radically extend life expectancies. The clear answer is, no.  

I have spent many of my 85 years thinking about old age, what it means and what we might do about it. There is

Should Pearson Decide to Sell Its Stake, Bertelsmann Seeks Partner to Buy Penguin Random House

From peHUB:

European media giant Bertelsmann (BTGGg.F) is looking for a private equity partner to help it buy the rest of publisher Penguin Random House should co-owner Pearson (PSON.L) want a swift exit from the business, three sources told Reuters.Privately owned Bertelsmann controls 53 percent of the publisher of bestsellers such as the Fifty Shades series and Lee Child’s Jack Reacher

"DARPA seeking novel mathematical frameworks for understanding and representing complexity"

We are still at least a decade away from being able to model systems that are both complex and chaotic. Fortunately you can get a lot done by understanding nonlinear jerk systems.
Now, could I get all the jerks to line up on the outside of the butterfly wings...

From Next Big Future:

Complex interconnected systems are increasingly becoming part of everyday life in both military and civilian

Business Insider's Parent, Axel Springer, Is Suing An Adblocker

From harknesslabs:
Are Adblock companies legal?

Today brought the news that Axel Springer, the media giant that recently bought business insider for 343 million is suing a ad blocker. Many would balk at this action, claiming that ad blocking is inherently legal and that this is just a dinosaur grasping for any method they can to grab any dollars on the ground. 

The thing is though, ad blockers

"Why and how do Munger and Buffett “discount the future cash flows” at the 30-year U.S. Treasury Rate?"

From 25iq:

Buffett and Munger use several methods which are at odds with traditional financial theory. Here is one of those nontraditional approaches:Buffett: “We don’t discount the future cash flows at 9% or 10%; we use the U.S. treasury rate. We try to deal with things about which we are quite certain. You can’t compensate for risk by using a high discount rate.”There is no law of nature

1,111 Carat Diamond Found In Botswana

From Motherboard:



The final resting place for a diamond the size of your fist is not where you’d expect. 

At a whopping 1,111 carats, the largest diamond discovered in over a century was found in Botswana this week. The rock measures 65mm x 56mm x 40mm, about the size of a tennis ball. 

The stone was found in Karowe mine, which is 300 miles north of the country’s capital, Gaborone. Two

Nomura and Morgan Stanley on Dollar/Euro Parity

From Barron's Asia Stocks to Watch, Nov. 18:

Can Euro Hit Parity With The U.S. Dollar?

The U.S. dollar pared back gains in Asian trading after reaching a 7-month high against the Euro as the latest minutes from the Federal Reserve showed a strong intent to raise U.S. rates next month.

The euro rose 0.4% to trade at 1.07 recently. Other currencies gained too. The New Zealand dollar jumped 0.9%,

How Special Is The Financial Times? (FT @ NYT)

From the New York Times, Nov. 22:


Pearson’s Big Paydays Defy the Odds Against Print Media

It has been tough sledding for print media. More than 150 newspapers have closed or converted to digital-only offerings in the last two years. Recently the magazine giants Condé Nast and Time Inc. have both cut employees and closed magazines.

What, then, to make of the recent sales of The Financial

Saudi Statement Offers Another Opportunity To Short Oil

Today's action via FinViz:


$41.50, last.
And from ZeroHedge:

Oil Tumbles Back Into Red As Saudi "Whatever It Takes" Jawboning Is Not Enough

Just 2 hours after news broke of Saudi officials discussing the need to do "whatever it takes" to stabilize the oil market - sending crude soaring - half the gains are gone. With the algos tagging Friday's highs, WTI Crude has tumbled back into the red

U.S. Farmland Price Decline Now At Two Years and Counting

From Agrimoney:
US farmland prices extend decline to two full years

Farmland prices in major US agricultural states extended their decline to two full years, undermined by weak crop values which have kept the farm equipment sector in the mire for even longer.-A farmland price index formulated by Creighton University, on states from North Dakota to Colorado, came in at 34.8 points for November –

Gold Miners: Here Comes Your Nineteenth Market Meltdown (GDX; GDXJ)

December gold $1071.60, down $4.70.

The ETF for the senior miners, the GDX closed at $13.40 on Friday, down 4% on the day and flirting with the multi-year low printed on September 11 at $12.62. The juniors, proxied by the GDXJ closed at $1.79 down a lower percentage but weak nonetheless.



From The Daily Gold:



Bracing for Another Breakdown in Gold Miners


The bear market in the gold miners

"Trends in oil production"

From Econbrowser:

World field production of crude oil increased 2.9 million barrels a day
in the 12 months ended last July. That compares with a 3.6 mb/d increase
over the entire nine years from Jan 2005 to Dec 2013.



The biggest single factor is Iraq, where production is up almost 1.1
mb/d over the last year. Although ISIS has managed to bring cruelty to
much of the rest of the world, so

"Goldman eyes $20 oil as glut overwhelms storage sites"

In case you missed it.
This is actually a reiteration of a call Goldman made in September, which idea was shot down by a bunch of idiots demurrers .
Storage and the perception of storage are important, see link below.
December futures have dropped off the board, the new front-month January's were last at $41.46 down 26 cents. With October 2016 contracts at $48.02 there is more than enough room

"China’s Demographics at a Turning Point"

The one rule of demographics is: demographics rule.

From New Geography, November 18:

For decades, the decline in China’s birth rate was a big boost for the economy. What now?

This week, schadenfreude could have been a word invented for China
experts if you judge by some of the commentary surrounding the country’s
lifting of its one-child policy. Most got it right that the legacy of
the

The Hidden Message of the Fed Minutes (The Federal Reserve is looking for lower interest rates for a long time)

From Barron's 'Up and Down Wall Street' column:


Has nasty, brutish, and short become the
real new normal of today’s world? To judge by stock markets around the
globe last week, it might seem so.



Not
missing a beat after the horrific terrorist attacks by Islamic State
operatives that took the lives of 130 people in Paris a week ago Friday,
equity markets rallied, with Wall Street

Art: War Between the 'Freeport King' and the Oligarch and How Dmitry Rybolovlev Made a Quick $300 Million

From the Financial Times:

The Art Market: Feathers fly in Monaco
Bouvier/Rybolovlev lawsuits; Geneva tightens up on freeports; Paris Tableau folded into Biennale; lay-offs at Sotheby’s 



‘Tete’ by Amedeo Modigliani, which Dmitry Rybolovlev bought from ‘freeport king’ Yves Bouvier


The increasingly vicious dispute between “freeport king”
Yves Bouvier and his former client, the Russian

"Critical Slowing Down" As A Warning Signal In Complex Systems

From the Simons Foundation's Quanta Magazine:




Complex Systems

Nature’s Critical Warning System

Scientists are homing in on a warning signal that arises in complex
systems like ecological food webs, the brain and the Earth’s climate.
Could it help prevent future catastrophes?

 

Nestled in the northern Wisconsin woods, Peter Lake once brimmed with

ZeroHedge Reminds Us Of The Best Trading Video, Ever

We've used this a couple times and it never gets old.
From ZeroHedge:

Stocks Soar Most In 13 Months After Worst European Terrorist Attack In Over A Decade

...MORE

"LivingSocial Offers a Cautionary Tale to Today’s Unicorns"

I had forgotten about this one.
But the one we are most interested in is WeWork, a couple links after the jump.

From the New York Times:

The first thing you see when walking into the headquarters of
LivingSocial is row upon row of mostly empty desks, broken up by small
street signs that employees once needed to find one another when the
office teemed with people.


One
row, “BYFAD Lane,”

The Man Who Saw The Future of Terrorism

Don't get hung up on al-Qaida in the headline below, they are ISIS. The name you want is Jama'at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad which was the Zarqawi group that morphed into Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI).
(Wikipedia does a good job on the twists and turns of the history)

Contra a silly little Vox video on the roots of ISIS that has been making the rounds, the organizational history actually goes back to 1999

"Natural Gas Falls With Stockpiles and Temperatures Still High"

December futures $2.188 down 8.8 cents.
The last couple week's action:



FinViz
From the Wall Street Journal:

Prices plummeting to four-week low

Natural gas prices are plummeting to a four-week low as mild
temperatures and record-high stockpiles continue a months-long route for
the heating fuel.

Futures for December delivery recently traded
down 7.7 cents, or 3.4%, at $2.199 a million

Stanford and Nvidia Team Up For Next Generation Virtual Reality Headsets (NVDA)

We are fans* (of the company, the school employs a professor who's a straight-up charlatan).
The stock's at $31.50.
From Fortune:

Nvidia
and Stanford University are developing the next generation of virtual
reality headsets that could be consumer products by 2018.



Virtual reality has had numerous hurdles to
overcome on its way to being part of our everyday lives, from graphics
to

As We Approach the 150th Anniversary of The Publication of "Alice's Adventures in Wonderland": Izabella Kaminska on Bank Funding

The actual date of the sesquicentennial (of the second printing, the history is a bit convoluted, see below) is November 26th, the same date upon which Thanksgiving Day falls in the U.S. so I won't be here.
(it's all about me)
From FT Alphaville:

When unsecured is cheaper than secured borrowing

A strange thing is happening in money markets: the cost of borrowing
unsecured wholesale funds is

"Thirty-six North American oil and gas producers filed Chapter 11 bankruptcies this year"

Following up on yesterday's "Chesapeake Is Trading Like A Bankruptcy (CHK)".

WTI $41.84 up 12 cents and more concerning for a lot of these guys, natural gas front futures 2.199
-0.077.

From MoneyBeat:

Oil Producer Bankruptcies Piling Up

It’s been a long year for oil and gas companies.


After trading at an average price of $92.91 a barrel in 2014, the
U.S. oil benchmark has averaged

It's Probably Nothing: Baltic Shipping Index Collapses to All-time Low

From the Economic Collapse:

I was absolutely stunned to learn that the Baltic Dry Shipping Index
had plummeted to a new all-time record low of 504 at one point on
Thursday.  I have written a number of articles lately about the dramatic slowdown in global trade,
but I didn’t realize that things had gotten quite this bad already.

Not even during the darkest moments of the last financial crisis

Chesapeake Is Trading Like A Bankruptcy (CHK)

But it probably won't have to file.
First up, with the stock down 10% (to $5.40) on the day here is the recent action via FinViz:



And from Bloomberg: 

Chesapeake Energy Bonds Plunge to the Lowest Ever as Oil Falls

Debt of Chesapeake Energy Corp. tumbled to a record low on Thursday as the price of oil plunged.

Nine
of the energy producer’s unsecured notes plummeted, some losing more
than

UPDATED--"Financial Times journalists vote to strike over pension changes"

Following up on October 22's "Financial Times Journalists Authorize Strike Action Over Pensions".
We are a few hours late getting to this, the siren didn't go off.

Update below.
Original post:

Lifted in toto from Reuters:

Journalists at
Britain's Financial Times newspaper have voted to take strike action
over changes to the group's pensions proposed by its new owner Japan's Nikkei, the

At Gettysburg, November 19, 1863

A repost of our 150th-anniversary-of-the-speech post.

The Gettysburg Powerpoint presentation with technical support from Peter Norvig:

Author: Abraham Lincoln

Email: president@whitehouse.gov
Home Page: http://www.whitehouse.gov
 
Download presentation: Gettysburg.ppt

And now please welcome President Abraham Lincoln.

Good morning. Just a second while I get this connection to work.

"Goldman Sachs on Commodities: Not An Appealing Entry Point"

Agreeing with Goldman makes me nervous, I always wonder what we are missing but here I've gotta say, it's still too early. Too early that is except for legumes in India which seem to be rising due to both structural and cyclical price pressure.

Speaking of Indian legumes, did I ever tell you about the great guar squeeze of 2011-12? Back then men were men and beans were for frackin', not eatin'

The Best China Contagion Chart (and some other stuff)

From FT Alphaville:

Choose your own adventure, China contagion edition

An update from Alberto Gallo’s chart-chest:





We would suggest this is the correct way of thinking about China. The true level of GDP growth
is gonna always be an especially fuzzy metric so it’s the right hand
side of that chart — the effects of the slowdown — which matter and
allow you to track backwards.

Long form,

Stock Manipulation The TRC Capital Way: The Kinder Morgan Mini-Tender (KMI)

I think a little pretrial discovery on these guys would be interesting.
Are they entering any equity, quasi-equity or derivative positions prior to the announcement of their mini-tenders? Perhaps getting their synthetic short on?

Or maybe we just screw discovery and go straight to criminal subpoenas.

As long time readers know, we don't much care for the complexity of Kinder Morgan's capital

Follow-up: Elizabeth Warren on Wet Kisses and Tax Avoidance

Hmmm, I may have misread the headline.
From the Wall Street Journal's Washington Wire:

Elizabeth Warren Calls Corporate-Profits Proposals a ‘Wet Kiss’ to Tax Avoiders 

President Barack Obama’s plan to change how U.S. multinational companies are taxed is a “giant wet kiss” to tax-avoiding corporations, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) said Wednesday.

Ms. Warren took aim at the bipartisan

Climateer Line of the Day: SEC Commissioners Tell Jokes Edition

From the SEC (para 6):


Remarks at the 34th Annual Current Financial Reporting Issues Conference

...As a thought experiment, imagine a world where GAAP or other reporting standards did not exist – where management could develop its own numbers based on its own poorly-defined criteria.  Management might be tempted to create numbers that provide the illusion of performance but in reality are

"Batteries start to compete for power grid"

We just happen to have a copy of Lazard's report so there you go, serendipity.
And watching major lithium producer Sociedad Química y Minera report and tank 4% got me thinking about Chile and Bolivia.
Still a ways away.

From the Financial Times:

The cost of batteries is falling to the point that they are becoming an increasingly viable option for uses such as supporting the stability of power

"SunEdison Rebounds: Deutsche Defends; Axiom, Bronte Remain Concerned" (SUNE)

From Barron's Tech Trader Daily, who should have been on this but who left the heavy lifting to Income Investing:

Shares of solar installation firm SunEdison (SUNE) are rebounding today from yesterday’s 33% plunge, the result of a disappointing Q3 report, stock sales by prominent hedge funds, worries about the company’s debt position, and worrying signs on Monday from Vivint Solar (VSLR), the

Venture Capital--More Unicorns Not Worth Anywhere Near Their Purported Valuations: Both The Hartford and T. Rowe Price Cut Carrying Value

From Fortune:

Beyond Fidelity: Even More Mutual Fund Markdowns of Tech Startups

T. Rowe Price and The Hartford have marked down some of their privately-held tech investments. 

Fidelity Investments isn’t the only mutual fund manager that has marked down some of its privately-held tech investments, based on a Fortune review of funds managed by The Hartford and T. Rowe Price. This new data is

"Elizabeth Warren Delivers Major Speech Today On International Corporate Tax Reform"

We'll be back to this when the transcript is posted.
Via the TaxProf blog:

National Press Club:U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., will speak about corporate international tax reform at the National Press Club on Wednesday, Nov. 18. 

The livestream begins at 1:00 p.m. ET: The text of the speech will be available here beginning at 12:40 p.m. ET. 

(Click on YouTube button on bottom right to

Chartology: Senior Gold Miners Back At Support, No Hope For Juniors (GDX; GDXJ)

A twofer from FinViz. First up the seniors proxied by the MarketVectors Gold Miner ETF, $13.05 down 3 cents:


And the juniors, $18.41 down 22 cents:


Gold itself is trading down again after showing some early enthusiasm, $1067.8 -0.8.
From SafeHaven:

Gold Stocks Buckle

There is absolutely nothing good that can be said about the mining stocks at this point. Then again, there has been little

"Andreessen Horowitz Launches $200M Bio-Computer Fund, Hires Ex-Stanford Prof"

From Venture Capital Dispatch:

Andreessen Horowitz raised a $200 million fund to invest in startups that combine life science and computer science and has hired a new general partner, former Stanford University professor Vijay Pande, to run it. 

The firm joins several other venture firms investing in the same area—Norwest Venture Partners, New Leaf Venture Partners, 5AM Ventures and dRx

Who Gets Hurt By The Strong Dollar?

Dollar shorts?
EUR/USD 1.0667; DXY 99.522 down .109
From ZeroHedge:



Worst Economic Impact Still To Come, Fed's Fischer Warns As Dollar Soars To 12-Year Highs

The Trade-Weighted US Dollar has risen almost 19% over the past 18 months - the fastest pace of increase on record - and is now at its highest level since 2003. As we noted previously, this is not unequivocally good for American

Wall Street Won't (can't) Abandon Shale Oil So The Oil Just Keeps On Flowing

Saudi Arabia may be battling moron money.
From Reuters:

RPT-Struggling U.S. oil producers get credit lifeline amid downturn

An autumn credit crunch was expected to hit many independent U.S. oil producers, starving the industry of billions of dollars and further denting company budgets and drilling plans.

But banks that adjust their loans to energy companies every six months based on the oil

Questions America Wants Answered: "Is Craft Beer Bullshit?"

Well, when 'craft' brewer Ballast sells for a billion dollars you have to wonder about the whole industry.
From Vinepair:




There is no denying that craft beer is experiencing a boom. And this is a drastic change from even just ten years ago. At almost any bar or store across the country, one is likely to find craft beer as a possible choice, and those choices continue to multiply. This massive

Rolling Back to 2002 Prices: "Chesapeake Energy: It’s the Debt Load, Silly" (CHK)

New 52 week low today and the lowest since Q3, 2002: six bucks even.
It's always the debt load when things get to this point.
From Barron's Stocks to Watch:

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) has tumbled more than 4% after Sterne Agee CRT’s Tim Rezvan cut its rating to Neutral from Buy. He explains why: 

Downgrade CHK shares to Neutral from Buy, remove $13 PT. Our June upgrade thesis did not play out as

"Gold Slumps to 5.5-Year Low as U.S. Dollar, Stock Markets Rally"

Following up on yesterday's "It Appears Gold Is Going To Test Its Multi-Year Low".
December futures currently $1068.5 -15.10
From Kitco:

(Kitco News) - Gold prices dropped to a 5.5-year low near midday Tuesday, pressured in part by rallying U.S. and world stock markets. Traders and investors have reckoned the terror attacks in Paris are not going to influence their trading decisions--at least

Bronte Capital Updates On SunEdison, There May Be A Credit Issue (SUNE)

New all-time low, $3.63 down 20.39%.
From Bronte Capital:

Sun Edison disclosure practice

I have - on the grapevine - been sent a research report from Credit Sights on Sun Edison. "The title: Sun Edison and Terraform: Dual 10Q cut. Recourse?"

It is complete with the usual suggestion that there is debt at Sun Edison that is both (a) recourse to the parent company and (b) does not have sufficient

As SunEdison Collapse Continues: Loeb's Thirdpoint; Einhorn's Greenlight Bail On the Stock (SUNE)

$3.91 down 14.25% after touching another all-time low of $3.72.
A twofer from Barron's. First up, Focus on Funds:

Einhorn’s Greenlight Cuts Stake in Micron, SunEdison, Adds to Apple, GM, Consol Energy

The closely-watched hedge fund manager David Einhorn, struggling through a money-losing year, has renewed bets on Apple (AAPL), General Motors (GM) and Consol Energy (CNX) and slashed positions

The Most Crowded Trade And The Possibility Of Great Disappointment Tomorrow

And Alphaville's man on the subcontinent may have to get out of the sun before he goes all "Do you like Kipling/I don't know I've never kippled".

From FT Alphaville:


If you can be short dollar when all men doubt you


You’ll certainly be… something. 

According to BofAML’s monthly asking questions of global fund managers extravaganza anyway. Its conclusion is the new “pain trade” is “short

Ambrose is Worried as BAML Names Names In the Robot Revolution

Although we looked at the BAML report a week ago in "6 Predictions, 9 Stocks, A Revolution, An apocalypse, and Killer Robots – Oh My!" here is more detail from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at the Telegraph:

Robots may shatter the global economic order within a decade

'The pace of disruptive technological innovation has gone from linear to parabolic,' says Bank of America 

Robots will take over 45pc

Canadian Solar Decides It Is A Jolly Good Time To Float A Yieldco IPO (CSIQ)

Despite the name Canadian Solar's manufacturing operations are very Chinese but for some reason the company goes to some lengths to not point that out. It files quarterly on form 6K and annually on form 20F, both of which forms are for foreign issuers.

From PR Newswire:

Canadian Solar Announces Confidential Submission of YieldCo Registration Statement

GUELPH, Ontario, Nov. 4, 2015 /PRNewswire

New York Fed: The Federal Reserve and Barbie

From the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Liberty Street Economics blog:

Historical Echoes: The Fed’s Ties to the Barbie Doll


Which of the following statements is true (you may choose more than one):  (a) you are more likely to get a job at the Fed if you look like a Barbie doll, (b) you are less likely to get a job at the Fed if you look like a Barbie doll, (c) the inventor of the Barbie

"Runaway Stories and Fairy Tale Endings: The Cautionary Tale of Theranos"

From Professor Damodaran's Musings on Markets:

I saw the new Steve Jobs movie, with the screenplay by Aaron Sorkin, over the weekend. As a long-time Apple user and investor, I must confess that I was bothered by the way in which the film played fast and loose with the facts, but I also understand that this is a movie. Sorkin clearly saw the benefit of using the launches of the Macintosh in 1984

It Appears Gold Is Going To Test Its Multi-Year Low

$1072.30 back in August was the panic bottom:



FinViz
The fact gold could not hold its gains today, despite the awful news from Paris, can't be reassuring for the Bulls:



FinViz
$1082.80 last, $10.50 above the five-year low.

There is no chart support until the big round number, $1000, where the 2008-9 resistance becomes support on the way down. Perhaps a small pop back up this week to test

At the Fund Managers' Ball

Here's a painting I know at least a half dozen guys will be scheming to procure this year:






Detail from one of Jim Shaw’s “Dream Objects,” on display now at the New Museum

From the Paris Review's Staff Picks linkfest for Nov. 15:

...Jim Shaw’s “The End Is Here” is up through January 10 at the New Museum: three floors chockablock with thrift-store paintings, extreme Christian ephemera, and

Climateer Line of the Day: Students Calling For Professor's Removal Edition

Here's the petition.
From the students now calling for the re-education (no longer firing) of law professor Carol Swain:

...Secondly, there have been several instances in which students have
contacted Professor Swain to hold an intellectual debate with her, and
in return, she has resorted to name-calling. 
Do click the highlighted bit, this may be the funniest thing I have seen all year.
(

China Now Has 109 Of the World's 500 Fastest Supercomputers

They are not playing around.
From IEEE Spectum:
New Supercomputer Ranking Shows China Still on Top



China's Tianhe-2 remains the world champ.

The TOP500 supercomputer ranking, published today, shows China’s Tianhe-2 supercomputer remaining at the top of the heap, with its 33.86 petaflops/s. The number-two spot also remains unchanged: Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Titan supercomputer, which

Hacker Group Anonymous Declares War On ISIS

This may be the first time a non governmental body has declared war on another non-governmental body.
From The Mirror:

Anonymous declares war on Islamic State after Paris attacks in chilling video: 'We will hunt you down

The group warned: "The French people are stronger than you and will come out of this atrocity even stronger"

Hacker group Anonymous have declared war against ISIS after the

"Sun Edison: Investors Turn Out the Lights" (SUNE) "The most disastrous big hedge fund trade of 2015"

I have to compliment Barron's on their SunEdison coverage. And in particular the Income Investing column.
I mean, if we are going to call them (the whole mag) out for rah-rahing oil and oil stocks waaay too early, we have to be ready to point out the fact they were willing to actually look under the hood on this one, over a year ago.

SUNE $4.60 down 6.73%; GLBL $6.79 down 1.6%; TERP $12.66 down

Russian Oligarchs' Desire To Get The Hell Out Could Spur M & A Boom

From Bloomberg, Nov. 13:

Half of Russia's Richest People Are Planning to Cash Out

It’s been a quarter century since the fall of the Soviet empire triggered one of history’s greatest wealth transfers. Now bankers are preparing for another as Russia’s first generation of capitalists makes way for the next.Confidential surveys of dozens of millionaires and billionaires conducted since European and

"What the Options Market may be saying about the Euro and Yen"

From Marc to Market:

The latest leg down for the euro began in mid-October when the single currency met a wall of sellers in front of $1.15.  Draghi's dovishness at the press conference following the October 22 ECB meeting sent the euro toward $1.11.  The contrasting hawkishness of the Federal Reserve, where the FOMC statement on October 28 specifically cited the next meeting, pushed the euro

A Hint At Where the New York Attorney General's Investigation Of Exxon Will End Up, The Peabody Coal Settlement

Following up on November 8ths "Exxon Might Be in Trouble Over Climate Change" (XOM).



Even under the far-reaching, some have said "draconian", Martin Act, it is very difficult to show criminal liability, much less under the less encompassing Federal securities laws and the '33 and '34 acts, see below.

From the New York Times, Nov. 8:



Peabody Energy Agrees to Greater Disclosures of Financial

Oil: Both Saudi Arabia and Bahrain Planning Debt Issues

Brent $44.21, down 26 cents; WTI $40.59, down 15 cents.
First up, Reuters Nov. 10:

* Banks have been discussing matter since early this year* Domestic bond issues began in July* Discussing creation of debt management office* Initial issue might be $1-2 billion - Gulf source* Could issue two to four times a year (Adds more sources, context)

UPDATE 1-Saudi aims for first foreign bond as soon as

Uh Oh, I Think Izabella Kaminska Is Channeling Queen Boudica, And She is Not Amused

I know I'm mixing my monarchs in the headline but I'm nervous.
Here's why:



From Dizzynomics:

Silicon Valley utopia ain’t gonna happen

Over the last two decades, most of my adult life, I’ve watched as the
world has grown more interconnected than ever, fuelled by changes in
information technology which have almost universally been treated as a
force for good. This interconnection was

Mumbai In Solidarity With Paris

2001 New York
2002 Moscow
2002 Bali
2004 Madrid
2004 Beslan, Russia
2005 London
2006 Mumbai
2008 Mumbai
2009 Maiduguri, Nigeria
2012 Kano, Nigeria
2013 Baga, Nigeria 
2014 Kaduna, Nigeria
2015 Paris

From the Washington Post:




"Mumbai's main railway station, the Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus, is lit up in the colours of the French national flag on November 15, 2015 to express solidarity

Middle Eastern Markets Trade Weaker As Goldman Warns (7/7; 3/11)

From ZeroHedge:

Mid-East Stocks, US Futures Slide As Goldman Warns Of Paris Attacks' Negative Implications For Markets

Following the weakness in the few minutes of after-hours trading on
Friday's US session that overlapped with the first headlines from
France, we are getting a first glimpse at the posible fallout from the
Paris terror attacks. The Middle Eastern stock markets tumbled

Updated--How Russia Will Deal With The Terrorists Who Blew Up Their Plane and Killed 224 People

Update below.
Original post:
I've posted the story of Arkady Katkov a couple times. It seems once again appropriate.
The Russians can be nasty. After the Moscow theater hostage crisis in 2002 and the Beslan school massacre in 2004 you didn't hear much from the Chechens, despite the fact that sporadic hostilities continued until at least 2009. That is a gruesome story for another post. For today,

For the Paris EODM Fans: The Best Guitarist In the World Is A 17-Year Old French Girl

from Paris named Tina S.

While the band performing at Le Bataclan when the slaughter began were definitely not Mëtälhëäds (the name "Eagles of Death Metal" seems to be an inside joke) this girl can be.

Although classically trained she plays what is known as "shred" guitar, defined at Wiki as:

"sweep-picked arpeggios, diminished and harmonic minor scales, finger-tapping and whammy-bar abuse"

The Maasai, A Possible Injustice and the Connection to Paris

Full disclosure: I've stated right up front that I have kind of a soft spot for the Maasai and not just because they gave Charles, HRH Prince of Wales, Duke of Cornwall, Prince and Great Steward of Scotland etc, etc., another title, but also because of what they did after the murderous events of September 11, 2001.

This post is a bit of advocacy on their behalf.

First up, the possible

Pour France

This was on January 13th, 2015, a moment of silence for the Charlie Hebdo victims.
At 37 seconds you hear a lone voice.
It was the first time La Marseillaise had been sung in the National Assembly since 1918.

Sirens Are Sounding for the Best ETF Trade Ever

From Bloomberg:

Here we go again.

Interest in the most popular exchange-traded fund that's used to bet on increasing U.S. interest rates is rising again as investors speculate that the Federal Reserve may embark, as early as next month, on its first hiking cycle in almost a decade.

The ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT), which uses derivatives to provide twice the opposite of the

News You Can Use: How To Never Step Wrong with Burgundy Wine

Switch to champagne?
Switch to something. At the top end this stuff will pick your pocket, at the bottom it will fatten your liver into a wine infused foie gras.
From City A.M.:

The Burgundy Puzzle: a frustrating wine that can astonish or appall, here's how to get it right

The other day I was invited to a friend’s birthday party where the wine was given star billing. It was a Santenay 2012 and

Q&A: "Jim Rogers: His Outlook For Stocks, Commodities"

This is not your father's Jim Rogers. Don't buy gold. Dollar as safe haven. Agriculture should be okay.
As I said about the Trump piece, not much to disagree with.
From Barron's:

The legendary investor thinks a global bear market is coming. While he waits, here’s what he’s buying.

At age 73, Jim Rogers, the international investor who once motorcycled around the world to find opportunities,

Builder Says $500 mil Mansion Should be Seen As a Bargain

From Details:
The Making of the Most Expensive Mansion in History

On a hilltop in Bel Air, a 100,000-square-foot gigamansion is under construction, for no one in particular. The asking price—$500 million—would shatter records, but, as ridiculous as it sounds, in L.A.'s unbridled real-estate bubble, this house could be billed as a bargain.High above Bel Air, Nile Niami is looking down on the

Izabella Kaminska On the Transubstantiation Of Monet Into Moola (and vice versa, if you prefer your vice, versa)

She doesn't have time to get into it in the present post but the role of the central banks in inflating the net worth of the 200* richest people on the planet is really quite amazing.

*# 200 gets you down to about $6.5 billion, give or take.

From FT Alphaville:


Interest rate hikes are bad news for cultural rent seekers

A funny thing happened this decade. 

The fairly logical-minded world of

Barclays: A Brighter Day Lies Ahead (for energy stocks)

Re: the energy companies, we'll get at least three distinct moves.

First a short-covering pop of ~12% over one to three days as the shorts sniff the coming buying inflow. Then either a pause or small decline before the crowd stops waiting for the "when it drops back to X then I'll get in" moment and finally some sort of discounted cash flow valuation that incorporates the Paris politics and

Barney Frank's Erect Nipples

Among the things Donald Trump finds disgusting.

Hard to disagree with that. We shall overcomb.

"Derivatives And Usury: The Role Of Options In Transactions Used To Act In Fraud Of The Law"

I have been meaning to put together a post on Russell Sage, one of my heroes, for pretty much the lifetime of this blog and now, thanks to the power of procrastination, I don't have to.
A quick search of the blog shows only one mention of Sage, the fact that in Forbes' first rich list in 1918, Mr. Sage's widow, Olivia, clocked in as the second-richest woman in America.

From ValueWalk:

Emilio

Dear FT Alphaville, Please Don't Link To Bronte Capital...

...Until he explains his silence on SunEdison.

I know you like him but, this is just weak.

On October 1st he wrote that Bronte was going long SUNE. The stock closed up 2 cents on the announcement.
On October 2, FT Alphaville, supplied the FT megaphone and relayed the news as part of a larger story and the stock got a rip-roaring Financial Times pop, up 14.86%.
The next trading day, Monday the

"Is the SunEdison Sell-Off Getting Overdone?" (SUNE; TERP; GLBL)

Well yeah, when they start offering you one rooftop panel for...
Oh wait, SUNE doesn't deal in rooftop solar.
Never mind.
From Barron's Income Investing:

SunEdison (SUNE) is taking a pounding for the second day in a row after posting disappointing quarterly results that sparked concerns about the company’s long-term viability. The stock is down a staggering 85% since peaking in July, points out

"The euro was pointless" (all I ever wanted was the coal and steel community)

He takes a couple meanders ("they're all in line for the 400-meter mosey") but gets to a finish line that is simply profound.
From FT Alphaville:

It’s easy to forget now, but the single currency wasn’t created purely as a political project.

Many economists in the 1980s and 1990s thought monetary union would encourage cross-border investment and trade by eliminating the risk premiums associated

Climateer Headline of the Day: SunEdison Edition (SUNE; GLBL

SunEdison is down another 15.9% on the day so it's a horse race between Business Insider's:

"SunEdison is getting obliterated"
And Investor's Business Daily's:

SunEdison Inferno Chars SolarCity, SunPower, Yieldcos
Yes, yes, burns like a thousand suns etc., etc.

The riskiest of the SunEdison triad of doom, TerraForm Global, is "only" down another 2% with the other yieldco down 4%.

Another Day, Another Unicorn Dies A Little: "Snapchat stake marked down by investor Fidelity"

There is absolutely no bubble in technology

-Peter Thiel

October 31, 2007
From the Financial Times Nov. 10:

Snapchat has been marked down by one of its most high-profile investors, raising further questions about the soaring valuations of private technology companies.

Fidelity, the only fund manager to have invested in the four-year-old company best known for disappearing photos, wrote down

"6 Predictions, 9 Stocks, A Revolution, An apocalypse, and Killer Robots – Oh My!"

Now that's a snappy headline.
From RoboHub:



A new 300-page research report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Robot Revolution – Global Robot & AI Primer, and to a lesser extent BSG’s report: Man and Machine in Industry 4.0, make for interesting reading and highlight the role of AI and the changing nature of jobs and work in the exponential growth of the robotics industry.


“We are facing a

Free Money In China

The thing that stands out is how fast the marketeers move when they see an opening.
From FT Alphaville:


IPOs restarting in China, you say? Risk free returns as usual, you suggest?


Macquarie on Friday:We should know by now that trying to anticipate results on margin flows is truly a mug’s game. However, we’re still playing. 

Credit Suisse on Monday running with a very similar theme, even if

"Portugal Is Potentially A Very Big Deal"

And Catalonia.
Catalonia is going to be interesting what with the secession by '17 and Barcelonia's crypto local currency. Actually the whole peninsula is up for grabs.
Let's see who grabs.

From SafeHaven:

Portugal has entered a phase change, with potentially huge ramifications. 

After handing a parliamentary majority to a coalition of leftist (i.e., anti-austerity, anti-euro, anti-NATO)